Come back, Summer… Nothing to be forgiven!

[sumi]

I'm not sure who we ticked off in Siberia, but they sent us this:

Metalert Ireland
February 23 at 8:51am ·


ADVANCED WEATHER ADVISORY (WARNING)
TIMELINE: MONDAY 26TH FEB 2018......ONWARDS
AREA: NATIONWIDE
CONFIDENCE: 100% Minor disruption.
CONFIDENCE: 70% Severe disruption.

This our first "warning" advisory for very cold temperatures setting in from Monday the 26th of February. We have already upgraded through 50% general advisory to a 70% be prepared advisory, this is a readiness and be prepared warning. The next level we will issue (If required) is a "severe" warning.
At this time it looks possible that the cold outbreak will last until the end of next week at least?
We recommend and urge the public to keep a close eye on Met Eireann and your local forecasts over the coming days and week ahead. We expect our national forecaster to begin rolling out advisories over the coming weekend.
AVOID ALL UPLAND ROAD NETWORKS REGARDLESS OF LOW LAND CONDITIONS.
From Monday and throughout the course of next week we expect to see temperatures drop back each day. The threat of wintry falls of snow will increase as we proceed through the week.
Latest guidance suggests that by mid week temperatures will struggle to highs of or stay below 0c/-2c by day -4c/-9c by night with an increasing risk of widespread snow accumulations across the eastern half of Ireland from Monday night through to Saturday. Wind chill or feel like temps will be exceptionally cold in a brisk easterly wind from Tuesday.
The snow threat from a nationwide aspect will also increase as the week goes on. There is a 70% risk of very heavy snowfalls leading to widespread disruption. Putting that into a perspective there is a 1 in 3 chance that a severe outbreak will not occur.
We continue to urge the public to check in on elderly or vulnerable neighbours and family. Please make them aware of the weather outlook next week. Do they have enough medication, food and fuel?
100% Confidence: Very Cold Outlook 5/7 days as of Monday, minor disruption.
70% Confidence: Severe to Widespread Disruption in Ireland.

 

[frustratedearthmother]

Yikes! Hope it's not as bad as they think it will be! How is it now?

 

[sumi]

It's cold out and windy, but not too bad. I cut and brought in as much wood as I could today and may do some more later, before it gets dark. As long as we can keep the fire going, we'll be o.k. I'm a bit nervous about this cold coming though, as they have been talking about it for more than a week now and we're getting warning after warning this weekend. I hope it's not going to be too bad… By many US states' standards it's normal winter, but it's unusual for Ireland and we're not completely prepared or sure how to handle this.

 

[frustratedearthmother]

Hope it doesn't get to be too much! Good on getting wood ahead of time - hope you can get a surplus inside.

 

[sumi]

I hope I have enough wood in here. Much of what we gathered after the storm turned out to be fresh and needs a few more months of seasoning before I can burn it. I did have some big pieces that I have been putting off sawing up, partly to let my arm heal first and partly because they are BIG and it's HARD wood (I use a handsaw). They burn great though, so it's worth it

 

[frustratedearthmother]

it's HARD wood (I use a handsaw). They burn great though, so it's worth it

Wow - that's some hard work especially with a wounded wing!

 

[treerooted]

That's got to be tough if you're not used to it, I hope everything turns out ok and you're able to stay warm!

 

[sumi]

Oh boy… (I'm in east Munster)

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, windy and very cold, with outbreaks of snow (possibly sleet right along the east coast but snow more likely any distance inland), potential for 5 to 15 cms in Leinster, 3 to 10 cms in south and east Munster, traces to 3 cms further west and north. Winds northeast 40 to 70 km/hr, highs -1 to +3 C, and temperatures likely to drop during snowfall to -1 C. Snow may be accompanied by thunder especially near east coast.

WEDNESDAY ... After a very cold start (lows -11 to -5 C) becoming very windy with outbreaks of heavy snow likely, thunder possible, accumulations of 10 to 25 cms in parts of Leinster could be disruptive to travel, 5 to 15 cms in parts of Munster and east Ulster, tapering to trace amounts near west coast (but some bursts of heavier snow could reach as far west as Galway and Limerick). Highs only -4 to -1 C, feeling like -10 C in the wind which will be easterly 50 to 90 km/hr.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... A severe winter storm appears very likely, although those conditions may already be occurring by Wednesday in parts of Leinster. This storm is likely to spread to all parts of Ireland with strong east winds 60 to 110 km/hr (in exposed coastal east and south, more like 50 to 80 km/hr elsewhere), heavy snow, blowing snow and blizzard conditions especially over open rural and higher terrain. There is potential for 20 to 50 cms of snow during this period. Temperatures will be steady in the range of -2 to +1 C. Some guidance suggests sleet changing to rain could spread into south at least near coast, and this could eventually push further north. Other guidance still says that the cold and snow remain in place and continue with somewhat reduced severity into Saturday 3rd. ... This will obviously be very disruptive and travellers could be stranded if this comes to pass, keep in touch with the forecasts as better guidance becomes available mid-week.

 

[NH Homesteader]

Sounds like a forecast fit for here, not Ireland! Hope you escape the worst of it!

 

[sumi]

I'm in south Tipperary, on an elevated spot, so we're going to get hammered if it snows like they think it will We and Co Kildare usually gets snow first, when it comes. They are even predicting snow in Wicklow and they never get snow down there.