USDA figures

[me&thegals]

Our corn is being combined right now. I suppose they can't come up with firm totals when a lot of the crop is still in the field. Plus, it still needs to get weighed and humidity tested to see what quality it has. Around here, the weights have been so low that farmers using corn for feed are blowing right through it since they have to up the volume so much to feed the animals.

 

[Wifezilla]

"Questions also remain on the quality of corn already in storage. Some of the questions that persist include a) the possible impact of low corn test weights on feedgrain usage; b) the quality deterioration of some corn supplies currently in storage; c) the potential for production losses on as much as 500 million to 650 million bushels of the 2009 crop corn that still is unharvested; and d) possible corn crop abandonment this spring, due to wet soils and the need for farmers to begin fieldwork in preparation for planting the 2010 corn crop."

http://www.porkmag.com/directories.asp?pgID=675&ed_id=8890

 

[Wifezilla]

Update...


Corn, soybean futures jump after disappointing crop report

By MICHAEL J. CRUMB Associated Press
Published: 1/13/2011 2:31 AM
Last Modified: 1/13/2011 5:55 AM

DES MOINES, Iowa - A surprising drop in the U.S. corn and soybean crop sent grain prices surging Wednesday to their highest points in 2 1/2 years. The increases stoked concerns about higher food prices and tighter supplies of feedstock for food and biofuels.


Wet weather and abnormally high temperatures hurt U.S. corn production in 2010, the U.S. Agriculture Department reported. The report also showed declines in soybean, wheat and grain sorghum.

March corn futures jumped 4 percent to settle at $6.31 a bushel. Soybean prices jumped 4.3 percent to $14.15 a bushel.

The report confirmed traders' fears that historically low stockpiles of grain and oilseeds could leave little buffer in coming months as demand rises with a growing global economy. Prices were at their highest since the financial crisis of 2008 caused a collapse in global demand for food and fuel.

"It's just confirming that supplies are lower than we thought, and demand is better than we thought, and when that happens you see prices bidding up," said Chad Hart, an Iowa State University specialist in grain marketing.

It can take months for higher grain prices to work their way to the supermarket. Raw ingredients are just a fraction of the cost for processed foods.

But companies such as Hormel Foods Corp. have already announced price increases of more than 3 percent this year. Higher grain costs will put more pressure on them to pass costs along to consumers.

The U.S. corn crop dropped 5 percent
last year to 12.4 billion bushels. Still, it remained the third-highest yield on record. The record was set in 2009, when 13.2 billion bushels of corn were harvested.

At issue is the amount of grain being carried over from year to year. That surplus creates a buffer for global markets. The report shows that corn stockpiles are among the lowest ever recorded, at just 5 percent of the total corn used, said Hart, the Iowa State specialist.

The report shows that just 745 million bushels of corn will be stockpiled by this August. That's down from about 1 billion bushels last August.

"That's a significant drop," Hart said. "Normally, we like to keep those levels above 10 percent."

Anthony Prillaman, an analyst with the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, said weather was the key factor in the lower production.

"Everything shows that normal or above-normal temperatures in August reduced the yield potential for corn," he said. "They were above normal and stressed the crop."

Hart said demand continues to rise, with the ethanol industry the area of fastest growth. The largest overall demand continues to come from the livestock industry.

Lower stockpiles are also evident with soybeans, wheat and cotton, Hart said.

"Things were already really thin with soybeans and have been for the past three years," he said.

Soybean stock supplies are at 4 percent, down from 5 percent the previous year.

Original Print Headline: 2010 Corn, Soybean Production Tumbles; Prices Surge

By MICHAEL J. CRUMB Associated Press
http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/...ticleid=20110113_47_E3_ULNSon912532&rss_lnk=5

 

[Wifezilla]

2011 update

"The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Wednesday "reported that last year's corn and soybean crop was smaller than its earlier estimates," Minnesota Public Radio reports. "As a result, prices for corn, soybeans and wheat are rising quickly, sparking concern about higher food prices" (Steil, 1/13).

Corn for March delivery increased as much as 1.7 percent to $6.42 per bushel, "the highest price for the most-active contract on the Chicago Board of Trade since July 2008," Bloomberg/Telegraph reports. USDA "lowered its estimate on the country's corn harvest last year, widening the global production deficit by 14 percent to 20.1m metric tons, from 17.2m tons in December," the news service writes (1/13).

"The price jump comes after the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organisation warned last week that the world could see repetition of the 2008 food crisis if prices rose further. The trend is becoming a major concern in developing countries," the Financial Times reports. "Agricultural traders and analysts warn that the latest revision to U.S. and global stocks means there is no further room for weather problems. The crops in Argentina and Brazil, to be harvested soon, look fragile due to dryness," the newspaper writes.

"Stocks of corn and soyabean are at incredibly tight levels ... and the markets are surging to incredibly strong prices," said Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University. Dan Basse, president of the forecaster AgResource, said, "There's just no room for error any more. With any kind of weather problem in the upcoming growing season we will make new all-time highs in corn and soy, and to a lesser degree wheat futures" (Meyer/Blas/Farchy, 1/12).

On Tuesday, Bruno Le Maire, France's agriculture minister, expressed concerns about the food price spikes and called for tighter regulation to prevent additional market swings, Reuters reports. France is the president of the G20. "'This is a cause for concern and I think it is urgent to get concrete answers and efficient tools' to avoid market swings, Le Maire told a news conference." He said, "The fact that wheat prices rise to 140-150 euros from 110-120 euros because there is less production is just the way the market works and this is not an issue."

"What we do find problematic on the other hand is that based on this reality a certain number of people come and speculate and push wheat prices to more than 200 euros ($259 per tonne). This is what we find problematic and that's what we want to fight against," he added. "Le Maire also said the current situation was not as worrying as in 2008," the news service writes. "French President Nicolas Sarkozy pressed for international efforts to impose greater transparency in commodity markets trading and pricing during a meeting with his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama at the White House on Monday" (de la Hamaide, 1/12).

In related news, IRIN reports on the South African Competition Commission's decision to reject a bid by South African farmers to export a surplus of maize to food insecure neighbors Swaziland and Lesotho.

"We wanted to start a debate in the country. Surpluses of this magnitude are unusual; food prices are going up globally. We have suggested the farmers consider storing the surplus," the Commission's Oupa Bodipe said. "He said the surplus should challenge the government and the agriculture sector to broaden their options and suggested the farmers consider using the surplus to manufacture biofuel," IRIN writes. The article also looks at the outlook for South Africa's maize industry and the implications of the commission's decision (1/13).

FAO, WFP Report Highlights Food Security In S. Sudan

The U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP) on Wednesday issued a report "warn[ing] recent gains in food security in Sudan could be reversed by increasing food prices and an escalation of localized conflict. The agencies say states bordering on northern Sudan, such as Upper Nile and Unity, are most vulnerable," VOA News reports (Schlein, 1/12).

"South Sudan produced some 695,000 tons of cereal last year, the report said" - a figure Agence France-Presse/News24 writes "was nearly 30% higher than in 2009 - mainly due to favourable rainfall and increased cultivation - but still left a deficit of around 291,000 tons that is covered by commercial imports and food aid. ... The report found that the deficit could now rise to 340,000 tons due to the high number of people returning as the region votes on independence this week" (1/12).

Meanwhile, Reuters notes that investment and security could enable south Sudan to "become a food exporter and end its chronic food dependency within a decade, the U.N. World Food Programme said on Wednesday" (1/12).

Report Outlines Two Scenarios For How Planet's 9B People Can Be Fed By 2050

A new report outlines strategies for how the world will be able to "feed the predicted 2050 population of nine billion people," Nature News reports. The findings, based on data from 2006 to 2008, "could overturn some current assumptions about the state of global farming" (Casassus, 1/12).

The study, "called Agrimonde (Agriworld in French), is co-authored by specialists at France's National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) and the International Cooperative Centre for Agronomical Research for Development (CIRAD)." It "puts forward two scenarios - both relatively optimistic - by which the planet's expected nine billion humans are fed by 2050," Agence France-Presse reports."
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/213731.php

 

[Wifezilla]

U.S. cattle inventory hits 52-year-low

January 31 - The overall U.S. cattle inventory has dropped to its lowest level since 1958, the latest USDA report shows.

The latest inventory pegs the overall numbers at 93.9 million as of Jan. 1, down one per cent from the previous year.

Broken down into individual classes, the report shows beef cows were down by two per cent from Jan. 1, 2010 at 30.9 million, while dairy cows were up by one per cent at 9.1 million.

Heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.5 million, down one per cent.

Beef replacement heifers, 5.2 million, down five per cent.

Milk replacement heifers, 4.6 million, up one per cent.

Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.4 million, down one per cent.

Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.2 million, down two per cent.

Calves under 500 pounds, 14.5 million, down three per cent.

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 14.0 million,

up three per cent.

The report also showed that the 2010 calf crop stood at 35.7 million head, down one per cent from 2009. Its the smallest calf crop since 1950.

U.S. sheep and lamb inventory declines.

The latest USDA report shows a two per cent drop in U.S. sheep and lamb numbers in the past year.

The inventory, based on Jan. 1 conditions, says there were 5.53 million head of sheep and lambs on U.S. farms. The breeding sheep inventory decreased to 4.12 million head, down two per cent from Jan. 1, 2010.

Market sheep and lambs totaled 1.42 million head, down one per cent.

The 2010 lamb crop of 3.60 million head, was also down two per cent from the previous year. The 2010 lambing rate was 108 lambs per 100 ewes one year old and older on. Thats unchanged from 2009.
http://www.ontariofarmer.com/sitepa...RES&an=U.S. cattle inventory hits 52-year-low

 

[colowyo0809]

U.S. cattle inventory hits 52-year-low

January 31 - The overall U.S. cattle inventory has dropped to its lowest level since 1958, the latest USDA report shows.

The latest inventory pegs the overall numbers at 93.9 million as of Jan. 1, down one per cent from the previous year.

Broken down into individual classes, the report shows beef cows were down by two per cent from Jan. 1, 2010 at 30.9 million, while dairy cows were up by one per cent at 9.1 million.

Heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.5 million, down one per cent.

Beef replacement heifers, 5.2 million, down five per cent.

Milk replacement heifers, 4.6 million, up one per cent.

Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.4 million, down one per cent.

Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.2 million, down two per cent.

Calves under 500 pounds, 14.5 million, down three per cent.

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 14.0 million,

up three per cent.

The report also showed that the 2010 calf crop stood at 35.7 million head, down one per cent from 2009. Its the smallest calf crop since 1950.

U.S. sheep and lamb inventory declines.

The latest USDA report shows a two per cent drop in U.S. sheep and lamb numbers in the past year.

The inventory, based on Jan. 1 conditions, says there were 5.53 million head of sheep and lambs on U.S. farms. The breeding sheep inventory decreased to 4.12 million head, down two per cent from Jan. 1, 2010.

Market sheep and lambs totaled 1.42 million head, down one per cent.

The 2010 lamb crop of 3.60 million head, was also down two per cent from the previous year. The 2010 lambing rate was 108 lambs per 100 ewes one year old and older on. Thats unchanged from 2009.
http://www.ontariofarmer.com/sitepa...RES&an=U.S. cattle inventory hits 52-year-low

I have to wonder though, and I know these reports focus more on commercial producers, but did they take into consideration the people who raise these animals for their own consumption? Or the ones who raise strictly for the small/local markets such as the mom & pop store in town, or the csa, or the farmers market? I figure they didn't, that they just focused on the growers/raisers who raise the commercial herds. And to be honest, some of that drop is probably because there are people who are raising for themselves instead of the commercial market, or raising for themselves and their csa, and the farmers market, and maybe the mom and pop organic store in town. *shrug* just a thought

 

[Wifezilla]

I do think it has an impact. Maybe that is why there is such a big push now to contaminate the entire food system (GMO alfalfa) so there will be no alternative.

 

[colowyo0809]

I do think it has an impact. Maybe that is why there is such a big push now to contaminate the entire food system (GMO alfalfa) so there will be no alternative.

True, but the whole contamination thing only works if you have others who are growing it within a 1/4 mile in any direction ( I could be wrong on the distance, but you get the general gist here ) If you grow your own, save seeds, and keep doing this then theoretically(sp?) your alfalfa would be fine, as well as whatever other grains and veggies and such you grow (and I am aware that no matter how careful one is, there is still the possibility of contamination )

 

[Farmfresh]

I don't know about the alfalfa, but corn pollen can travel 100's of miles on the wind. This whole food supply contamination thing is a mess.

Another part of the problem is fuel prices.

When fuel is high, feed is high, feed lots are able to feed out fewer cattle for the same costs.

 

[Wifezilla]

Yes, those fuel costs are going to bite us all.