So pitch your theory!

[On Our own]

As many of you know Jim Cramer declared the "depression over". Ooops, sorry that laugh came out didn't it?

But, there are many economists that agree with him that recovery is within six months.

Others however, are still proposing that we ain't seen nothing yet and a full out collapse is still immanent.

So, who do you think is right? And propose your favorite theorist or link!

 

[patandchickens]

My theory is that the macroeconomics perspective (like, official definitions of what counts as a depression or recession and what counts as one being 'over) is pretty totally irrelevant to real peoples' lives. Different regions and different sectors of the economy (job types) will behave in different ways; also what matters to a particular family is not the national unemployment rate (etc) but just the binary "does/do the head(s) of household have a job right now".

It's not like things will spring right back to being like they were in the 80s/90s/00s anyhow. Recovery (of whatever measure) will presumably be gradual and somewhat up-and-down, and who knows what other sorts of surprises from other sources can derail it.

Call me stupid, but I don't see a lot of point in trying to forecast things, unless you are relying on investment income to live on (like retirees) in which case I can well understand the *reason* but am not sure how much *good* it can do.

JMHO,

Pat

 

[inchworm]

I agree. Some areas will do better. Other areas will never recover. My sister, who struggled financially for 30 years, has suddenly hit pay dirt. She has more money than she ever has had in her life. She just bought her first house. The house was in foreclosure and she paid less than half the appraised value. It was someone's loss, but her gain.

On the other hand, I just found out that my daughter's college fund is now losing principal after 10 years. She only has 8 years to earn it back before she needs it and I'm not sure it really will.

Inchworm

 

[Dace]

I have to agree with both Pat & Inchy.
I was feeling the pain long before they labeled this as a depression When I heard that on the news I thought...Duh, I could have told you that!

It is all perspective. Like Inchy I know some folks who are doing quite well right now and others that are hurting.

I really did think we were headed down a long dark road. Nowadays I think we may be headed toward a subtle improvement.

 

[Wifezilla]

Stock market is up today. I am still thinking SUCKER'S RALLY

 

[SKR8PN]

Stock market is up today. I am still thinking SUCKER'S RALLY

I agree, and I still think we are looking at a total collapse before this is all over....... I hope I am wrong, but history sure doesn't show any reason to think otherwise for a fiat based economy.
Just my $0.02 worth.

 

[DrakeMaiden]

As many of you know Jim Cramer declared the "depression over". Ooops, sorry that laugh came out didn't it?

Yeah it did!

Well, I honestly don't see how it is going to turn around very fast or how we can go back to what we have known historically. But then, I'm not analyzing it solely based on economic theories . . . I'm thinking about bigger picture items, which I seem to recall we tend to agree on.

 

[FarmerChick]

It is many sided.

Some people's jobs are more secure than 6 months ago.....some who lost jobs have found new so they are in a better situation than before......and some companies are still having to close and lay off after a long time of struggle trying to stay alive.....so more job loss coming for some.

Tony's stock has made close to $40,000 over the last month. His company is doing fab. I am happy for the big gain of course, and will move it out of there into a safe money fund soon, very soon....I don't gamble much on the market but it is starting to come back I believe!!

I am buying up bank stocks also. I know it will be a while before they are as high as they were, but it will be some retirement funds for me for long term.

Great for some, tough on others....hmm....seems like all the times thru the decades in a way.

 

[Home Maker]

I don't have anyone to quote, but I just believe it is going to get worse than the Great Depression.

 

[inchworm]

Who suffered during the Great Depression? (I'm rather ignorant of this time period). I know much of what I "think" of the Depression is really the dust bowl drought.

Did anyone prosper during the Depression? I used to work at a duPont estate (not during the Depression). The estate where I worked accumulated a great deal of antiques during that era - I don't think they were hurting too much.

Is this capitalism's method of redistributing wealth?

Inchy