March this year

[rhoda_bruce]

I know what you mean. I have been decreasing my expenses to compensate for some of the increases in feed. Friday, I killed all of my drakes....6 in all. I have 4 roosters I don't really need and I think they are next, although I don't feed them anything....they are completely on their own. I will be finishing my guinea stall very soon so I can divorce them from the chickens and decide how many I keep and how many I eat....although as soon as I do that, they will be going to work on my garden, so less feed either way. I feel like I have to bring my expenses down. What if I can't get my grain supply at the river anymore and have to buy super expensive feed???? It will not be feasible. Gotta try to see if I can feed them a bare minimum and suppliment with grass/garden waste.
I have 7 little araucana chicks that hatched out a week ago, which have yet to find out what starter feed taste like because I've just ground up corn, milo, wheat and a few rabbit pellets for them. Plan on doing the same thing with the sex-link chicks that are about to hatch.
Guess I am worrying lately, but thats not entirely a bad thing, if you put it to good use. I've got plans up my sleeves for several 'just in case's.'

 

[FarmerChick]

I know what you mean. I have been decreasing my expenses to compensate for some of the increases in feed. Friday, I killed all of my drakes....6 in all. I have 4 roosters I don't really need and I think they are next, although I don't feed them anything....they are completely on their own. I will be finishing my guinea stall very soon so I can divorce them from the chickens and decide how many I keep and how many I eat....although as soon as I do that, they will be going to work on my garden, so less feed either way. I feel like I have to bring my expenses down. What if I can't get my grain supply at the river anymore and have to buy super expensive feed???? It will not be feasible. Gotta try to see if I can feed them a bare minimum and suppliment with grass/garden waste.
I have 7 little araucana chicks that hatched out a week ago, which have yet to find out what starter feed taste like because I've just ground up corn, milo, wheat and a few rabbit pellets for them. Plan on doing the same thing with the sex-link chicks that are about to hatch.
Guess I am worrying lately, but thats not entirely a bad thing, if you put it to good use. I've got plans up my sleeves for several 'just in case's.'

that one sentence you said is key to me. I feel the exact same way. While I am 'ok' I feel just like that...I need to reduce in order to stay better up on what is happening out there. I am taking all scrap to the metal yard, cleaning up and finding out again all I have on this farm I am selling off equipment and other attachments I KNOW I will not be using in the future...get them sold while I can.

I feel an urgency also. It is a 'just in case' feeling but I do get that feeling I need to act on some of my projects and more. Just like you with the poultry/fowl.

 

[dfr1973]

"Headed toward" because the rise in the consumer-price index has not yet been great enough...

Then he should be educated on how the US's BLS has changed the CPI calculation formula over the years. I am truly surprised Rogers doesn't already know ...
If CPI were calculated using the 1990 formula, it would be over 6%.
If the CPI was calculated using the 1980 formula ... it would be over 10%!

Convenient visual at John Williams' Shadow Stats site. The major changes: 1983 OER; 1995/6: hedonics, price product substitution; some quieter announcement for the weighting in the "basket of goods". I have found Alan Greenspan's white paper written in 1995 arguing for the adoption of hedonics for the specifically stated purpose of lowering the CPI numbers by "1 to 2%".

This is NOT my father's stagflation.

Just for fun, especially for those who remember "the Misery Index" ... the BLS also changed the way unemployment is calculated. So by changing the way both figures are calculated (unemployment and CPI) it's been guaranteed we will never again see an honest "misery index".

 

[Joel_BC]

"Headed toward" because the rise in the consumer-price index has not yet been great enough...

Then he should be educated on how the US's BLS has changed the CPI calculation formula over the years. I am truly surprised Rogers doesn't already know ...
If CPI were calculated using the 1990 formula, it would be over 6%.
If the CPI was calculated using the 1980 formula ... it would be over 10%!

Convenient visual at John Williams' Shadow Stats site. The major changes: 1983 OER; 1995/6: hedonics, price product substitution; some quieter announcement for the weighting in the "basket of goods". I have found Alan Greenspan's white paper written in 1995 arguing for the adoption of hedonics for the specifically stated purpose of lowering the CPI numbers by "1 to 2%".

This is NOT my father's stagflation.

Thanks for your post. That site is very interesting.

So, dfr1973, have you been thinking we're already definitely experiencing stagflation?

If so, what do you think are the prospects for deflation (which some experts feel will come)? The theory there being that, when fewer people can afford goods and services, the providers of those goods and services drop their rates/prices. They do that in order to maintain some cash flow (and, they hope, net income).

 

[dfr1973]

So, dfr1973, have you been thinking we're already definitely experiencing stagflation?

If so, what do you think are the prospects for deflation (which some experts feel will come)? The theory there being that, when fewer people can afford goods and services, the providers of those goods and services drop their rates/prices. They do that in order to maintain some cash flow (and, they hope, net income).

When *I* say the words "inflation" and "deflation" I mean them the way my old econ prof taught us: as an increase or decrease in the "money supply" which also includes credit. With several major central banks emitting credit like a candy-crapping unicorn, there is no chance* of (textbook) deflation happening. Recent guilty CBs include the US's FRB, BoE, BoJ, and the ECB. Whether they call it QE or LTRO, *I* call it monetizing the debt and inflationary.

Now, could CPI go negative? Of course. It is severely understated at this point (my household budget agrees with the 1980 formula that would give approximately 10% headline CPI) so because they tinkered with the calculation method we could see negative headline CPI even though my household budget would still say it's only under (positive) 6%. I am not looking for a negative headline CPI unless we have another serious economic shock and markets crash (like fall of '08). Until then ... prices will continue to creep up because the costs of the raw materials (commodities) keep rising, although still not as bad as it was in the spring of '10 ... the producers still are trying to recoup all that margin compression they've been eating the past 1-1/2 years.

You'll notice I distinguish between CPI and in/deflation. Due to the changes in the formula, CPI is just a mostly-useless fantasy number here. Prices are the visible effect of inflation (or deflation), not the actual **flation itself. The same applies to wages (very stagnant for about a decade) and interest rates (when allowed to move freely and when greater than ZERO).

*: CYA longshot - the only way we get actual deflation is through massive debt destruction, either it gets paid down or (much more likely) there are a whole lot of bankruptcies or a straight-up debt jubilee. I'm not holding my breath on that, though. Everyone seems to be trying to inflate their debts away (on the national/regional central bank and government level).

So ... clear as mud now?

 

[Joel_BC]

So ... clear as mud now?

Thanks for the economics lesson.

 

[Joel_BC]

anyone else seeing out there on the net that they are saying into March we will be having a big economic set back?

I tell ya the doom and gloom is scary. I am not huge into all of the mess that is going to screw up the economy etc. to a true SHTF type scenario...but predications of March and further with higher prices, more job loss, products not available, stores empty, gas increases and more is sounding quite nasty.

I am kicking up my supplies now for just in case. I let them get a bit slack in some areas.

Do you think March is playing out like these economic forecasters had been saying? I mean here in North America... I know Europe has it bad.

The unavailable products aspect doesn't seem to be anything I've been hearing about, yet.

Gas price increases? Yup. Creeping up, not huge leaps yet, at least here.

Also, there's an aspect that doesn't make sense for me. When average households are strapped and can't afford things, and there's widespread job loss, usually general prices come down. Manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers set prices lower in order to maintain sales, keep cash flow, and minimize flattening of profit margins. Law of supply and demand... Stores advertise sales. Etc.

I had to replace an electric drill last fall. I paid about $230 for a professional-grade model. In the last couple months, I've seen same model selling in my area for a shade under $200. So there are maybe examples of both rising and falling prices. ????

So where will these predicted price hikes (besides fuel/transportation cost increases) come from?

 

[FarmerChick]

well one thing in general about retail prices....you can't alway say the changes to the cost has anything to do with the economy.

last years drill might be going out of production. X amt in warehouse. time for a sale.....move that old/out of date model to the back of the bin. clear the warehouse.

then on the shelf is the company's 'improved/different by a bit' model....price $270.

So that obviously happens on alot of products.



health and beauty has gone up. cleaning agents etc have gone up. they are not coming down.
many foods have gone up by ALOT and not coming down.

sure there are sales. gotta get people to buy and be able to eat. people are shopping them like me retail will always have the 'how to sell more game' and 'sale prices' and all but in the end that last years drill that dropped a bit in price, when the newer version comes out it will be hiked up.

my insurances all went up. my ded. went up. my property taxes went up. my vehicle reg. went up. my drivers license was more expensive. we all know gas is the up and down game, but it sure isn't going back to lower than what it was the last time they started the up and down game. it always settles higher.

some companies might fall back on prices but not for long. no one can stay in bus. that way at all. just a matter of time if the writing is one the wall that the cost of a product is X, and you have to sell it for Y and no one buys cause they are out of money, then that product will be discontinued.

then the cheap versions come out. cheap enough and people buy. quality costs money. especially in tools.

also staples people buy are not coming down. maybe on longer items like a drill, but everyday use items are up and holding.


anyone get a good raise in their paychecks lately? enough to handle all their cost increases?

 

[fair weather chicken]

farmer chick, pay raise, what's that. how about no raises for three years and company purchases more and brings in lower paid help and squeezes out current employees. plus cutting overtime and asking for more without giving anything. sorry for the rant.

 

[FarmerChick]

farmer chick, pay raise, what's that. how about no raises for three years and company purchases more and brings in lower paid help and squeezes out current employees. plus cutting overtime and asking for more without giving anything. sorry for the rant.

I hear your rant. Rant away

with steadily increasing prices on everything in this world, and big increases fast, and pay is not higher, the inbalance can be a slap in the face!